Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 39.83%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 36.81% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.61%) and 0-2 (5.43%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 2-1 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
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