Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 58.01%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 21.27% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.07%) and 1-0 (7.65%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 1-2 (5.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Hamburger SV in this match.
