Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 54.79%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Kenya had a probability of 21.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.23%), while for a Kenya win it was 0-1 (6.45%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.
