Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 47.16%. A win for Senegal had a probability of 26.91% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a England win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (8.67%). The likeliest Senegal win was 0-1 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that England would win this match.
0.82) 
-0.16) 
