Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 50.97%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Croatia had a probability of 23.16%.
The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.95%) and 2-1 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.2%), while for a Croatia win it was 0-1 (8.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Argentina would win this match.
0.05) 
-0.02) 
