SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Newtown AFC | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 10 | Pontypridd Town AFC | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 11 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | The New Saints | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Caernarfon Town | 5 | 6 | 9 |
| 3 | Cardiff MU | 4 | 5 | 9 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 49.3%. A win for Pontypridd Town AFC had a probability of 25.44% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.42%) and 0-2 (8.96%). The likeliest Pontypridd Town AFC win was 1-0 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Pontypridd Town AFC | Draw | The New Saints |
25.44% ( -0.54) | 25.25% ( 0.28) | 49.3% ( 0.27) |
| Both teams to score 51.49% ( -1.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.64% ( -1.56) | 51.36% ( 1.57) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.82% ( -1.38) | 73.18% ( 1.39) |
| Pontypridd Town AFC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.05% ( -1.3) | 34.95% ( 1.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 28.31% ( -1.39) | 71.69% ( 1.39) |
| The New Saints Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.15% ( -0.52) | 20.85% ( 0.52) |
