SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barry Town United win with a probability of 42.19%. A win for Connah's Quay Nomads had a probability of 32.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barry Town United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.89%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-2 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Barry Town United | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
42.19% ( -0.13) | 24.92% ( -0.01) | 32.9% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 57.29% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.06% ( 0.1) | 45.95% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.75% ( 0.1) | 68.25% ( -0.09) |
| Barry Town United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.23% ( -0.01) | 21.78% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.03% ( -0.03) | 54.97% ( 0.03) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.23% ( 0.14) | 26.77% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.95% ( 0.18) | 62.05% ( -0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Barry Town United | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
| 2-1 @ 8.93% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 8.89% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 6.77% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 4.54% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.44% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.99% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.73% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.31% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.14% ( 0)Other @ 2.46% Total : 42.19% | 1-1 @ 11.71% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.88% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 5.83% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.31% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.91% | 1-2 @ 7.72% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 7.68% ( -0)0-2 @ 5.06% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 3.39% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.58% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.22% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.12% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.12% Total : 32.9% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | The New SaintsNew Saints | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 12 | 44 | 44 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 38 |
| 3 | Newtown AFCNewtown | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 33 |
| 4 | Cardiff MUCardiff MU | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 29 |
| 5 | Bala TownBala Town | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 28 |
| 6 | Caernarfon TownCaernarfon | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 27 |
| 7 | Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 22 |
| 8 | Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 21 |
| 9 | Barry Town UnitedBarry | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 37 | -18 | 16 |
| 10 | Colwyn Bay | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 14 |
| 11 | Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 13 |
| 12 | Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth | 18 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 39 | -25 | 11 |
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