Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 38.26%. A win for Reggina had a probability of 33.61% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.99%) and 0-2 (7.15%). The likeliest Reggina win was 1-0 (10.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Perugia in this match.
