SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 60.17%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Torpedo Moskva had a probability of 18.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.48%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.33%), while for a Torpedo Moskva win it was 0-1 (5.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sochi would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sochi | Draw | Torpedo Moskva |
60.17% ( 0.11) | 21.78% ( 0.05) | 18.05% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 52.25% ( -0.5) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.68% ( -0.5) | 45.32% ( 0.5) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.34% ( -0.48) | 67.66% ( 0.48) |
| Sochi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.37% ( -0.13) | 14.63% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.24% ( -0.25) | 42.75% ( 0.25) |
| Torpedo Moskva Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.21% ( -0.49) | 38.79% ( 0.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.48% ( -0.46) | 75.52% ( 0.46) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sochi | Draw | Torpedo Moskva |
| 1-0 @ 10.9% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 10.48% ( 0.13)2-1 @ 9.93% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 6.72% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 6.36% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 3.23% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 3.06% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 3.01% ( -0.06)4-2 @ 1.45% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.24% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.18% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.62% Total : 60.16% | 1-1 @ 10.33% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 5.68% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 4.7% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.12% Total : 21.77% | 0-1 @ 5.38% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 4.89% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.21% Total : 18.05% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 29 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 73 | 20 | 53 | 67 |
| 2 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 29 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 52 | 26 | 26 | 55 |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 28 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 53 |
| 4 | RostovRostov | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 44 | 38 | 6 | 50 |
| 5 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 49 |
| 6 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 60 | 44 | 16 | 47 |
| 7 | Dynamo Moscow | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 45 |
| 8 | OrenburgOrenburg | 29 | 13 | 4 | 12 | 55 | 55 | 0 | 43 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 47 | 43 | 4 | 39 |
| 10 | Sochi | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 38 |
| 11 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 33 |
| 12 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 29 |
| 13 | Fakel | 28 | 5 | 12 | 11 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 27 |
| 14 | Nizhny Novgorod | 28 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 31 | 50 | -19 | 26 |
| 15 | KhimkiKhimki | 29 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 25 | 65 | -40 | 18 |
| 16 | Torpedo Moskva | 29 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 21 | 58 | -37 | 13 |
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