SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fakel win with a probability of 40.26%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 35.02% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fakel win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.29%) and 2-0 (6.26%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 1-2 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Fakel | Draw | Orenburg |
40.26% ( -0.01) | 24.72% | 35.02% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 58.55% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.45% ( -0) | 44.55% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.09% | 66.91% ( -0) |
| Fakel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.9% ( -0.01) | 22.1% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.54% ( -0.01) | 55.45% ( 0) |
| Orenburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.15% | 24.85% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.55% ( 0) | 59.45% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fakel | Draw | Orenburg |
| 2-1 @ 8.71% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.29% ( -0)2-0 @ 6.26% ( -0)3-1 @ 4.39% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.15% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.05% 4-1 @ 1.66% 4-0 @ 1.19% 4-2 @ 1.15% Other @ 2.42% Total : 40.26% | 1-1 @ 11.54% 2-2 @ 6.07% 0-0 @ 5.49% 3-3 @ 1.42% Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.72% | 1-2 @ 8.04% 0-1 @ 7.65% ( 0)0-2 @ 5.32% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.73% 2-3 @ 2.82% 0-3 @ 2.47% 1-4 @ 1.3% 2-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.73% Total : 35.02% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 29 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 73 | 20 | 53 | 67 |
| 2 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 29 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 52 | 26 | 26 | 55 |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 54 |
| 4 | RostovRostov | 29 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 47 | 40 | 7 | 53 |
| 5 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 49 |
| 6 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 60 | 44 | 16 | 47 |
| 7 | Dynamo Moscow | 29 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 45 |
| 8 | OrenburgOrenburg | 29 | 13 | 4 | 12 | 55 | 55 | 0 | 43 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 29 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 51 | 45 | 6 | 42 |
| 10 | Sochi | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 38 |
| 11 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 33 |
| 12 | Fakel | 29 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 30 |
| 13 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 29 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 29 |
| 14 | Nizhny Novgorod | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 31 | 50 | -19 | 27 |
| 15 | KhimkiKhimki | 29 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 25 | 65 | -40 | 18 |
| 16 | Torpedo Moskva | 29 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 21 | 58 | -37 | 13 |
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