SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Brentford | 38 | -8 | 46 |
| 14 | Aston Villa | 38 | -2 | 45 |
| 15 | Southampton | 38 | -24 | 40 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 38 | -18 | 49 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 4 | 48 |
| 13 | Brentford | 38 | -8 | 46 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 43.05%. A win for Crystal Palace had a probability of 31.06% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Crystal Palace win was 0-1 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Crystal Palace |
43.05% ( 0.76) | 25.89% ( -0.07) | 31.06% ( -0.69) |
| Both teams to score 53.29% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.19% ( 0.05) | 50.81% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.3% ( 0.04) | 72.7% ( -0.04) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.54% ( 0.39) | 23.46% ( -0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 42.53% ( 0.57) | 57.47% ( -0.57) |
| Crystal Palace Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.62% ( -0.45) | 30.38% ( 0.44) |
