SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a York City win with a probability of 49.36%. A win for Aldershot Town had a probability of 26.76% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a York City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.36%) and 2-0 (7.99%). The likeliest Aldershot Town win was 1-2 (6.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| York City | Draw | Aldershot Town |
49.36% ( 5.63) | 23.88% ( -1.34) | 26.76% ( -4.28) |
| Both teams to score 57.11% ( 1.63) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.48% ( 3.43) | 44.52% ( -3.43) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.11% ( 3.24) | 66.89% ( -3.24) |
| York City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.87% ( 3.78) | 18.13% ( -3.78) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.91% ( 6.08) | 49.09% ( -6.08) |
| Aldershot Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.76% ( -1.29) | 30.24% ( 1.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.59% ( -1.58) | 66.41% ( 1.58) |
| Score Analysis |
| York City | Draw | Aldershot Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.56% ( 0.5) 1-0 @ 9.36% ( -0.27)2-0 @ 7.99% ( 0.68)3-1 @ 5.44% ( 0.85)3-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.85)3-2 @ 3.25% ( 0.41)4-1 @ 2.32% ( 0.58)4-0 @ 1.94% ( 0.54)4-2 @ 1.39% ( 0.31)Other @ 3.55% Total : 49.36% | 1-1 @ 11.19% ( -0.74) 2-2 @ 5.72% ( 0.1)0-0 @ 5.48% ( -0.86)3-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.12)Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.87% | 1-2 @ 6.7% ( -0.7) 0-1 @ 6.56% ( -1.3)0-2 @ 3.92% ( -0.95)1-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.39)2-3 @ 2.28% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.45)Other @ 3.08% Total : 26.76% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Wrexham | 46 | 34 | 9 | 3 | 116 | 43 | 73 | 111 |
| 2 | Notts County | 46 | 32 | 11 | 3 | 117 | 42 | 75 | 107 |
| 3 | Chesterfield | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 81 | 52 | 29 | 84 |
| 4 | Woking | 46 | 24 | 10 | 12 | 71 | 48 | 23 | 82 |
| 5 | Barnet | 46 | 21 | 11 | 14 | 75 | 67 | 8 | 74 |
| 6 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 46 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 52 | 40 | 12 | 72 |
| 7 | Bromley | 46 | 18 | 17 | 11 | 68 | 53 | 15 | 71 |
| 8 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 57 | 45 | 12 | 69 |
| 9 | Eastleigh | 46 | 19 | 10 | 17 | 56 | 57 | -1 | 67 |
| 10 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 46 | 18 | 9 | 19 | 61 | 72 | -11 | 63 |
| 11 | Halifax TownHalifax | 46 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 61 |
| 12 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 46 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 63 | 64 | -1 | 61 |
| 13 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 57 | 72 | -15 | 60 |
| 14 | Gateshead | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 67 | 62 | 5 | 59 |
| 15 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 62 | 66 | -4 | 58 |
| 16 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 67 | 91 | -24 | 57 |
| 17 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 45 | 14 | 13 | 18 | 67 | 81 | -14 | 55 |
| 18 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 45 | 14 | 10 | 21 | 63 | 75 | -12 | 52 |
| 19 | York City | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 55 | 63 | -8 | 51 |
| 20 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 47 | 66 | -19 | 50 |
| 21 | Torquay UnitedTorquay Utd | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 58 | 80 | -22 | 48 |
| R | Yeovil TownYeovil | 46 | 7 | 19 | 20 | 35 | 60 | -25 | 40 |
| R | Scunthorpe UnitedScunthorpe | 46 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 49 | 87 | -38 | 34 |
| R | Maidstone UnitedMaidstone | 46 | 5 | 10 | 31 | 45 | 104 | -59 | 25 |
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