SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford City win with a probability of 62.73%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Bath City had a probability of 16.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 1-0 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.53%), while for a Bath City win it was 1-2 (4.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Oxford City | Draw | Bath City |
62.73% ( -3.22) | 20.33% ( 1.33) | 16.94% ( 1.88) |
| Both teams to score 54.86% ( -0.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.25% ( -2.52) | 40.75% ( 2.52) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.87% ( -2.63) | 63.13% ( 2.63) |
| Oxford City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.59% ( -1.61) | 12.41% ( 1.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 61.69% ( -3.46) | 38.31% ( 3.46) |
| Bath City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.64% ( 0.79) | 37.36% ( -0.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.86% ( 0.77) | 74.14% ( -0.77) |
| Score Analysis |
| Oxford City | Draw | Bath City |
| 2-0 @ 10.09% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.1)1-0 @ 9.68% ( 0.5)3-0 @ 7.02% ( -0.55)3-1 @ 6.91% ( -0.38)4-0 @ 3.66% ( -0.55)4-1 @ 3.61% ( -0.45)3-2 @ 3.4% ( -0.11)4-2 @ 1.78% ( -0.18)5-0 @ 1.53% ( -0.35)5-1 @ 1.5% ( -0.3)Other @ 3.61% Total : 62.73% | 1-1 @ 9.53% ( 0.69) 2-2 @ 4.89% ( 0.15)0-0 @ 4.64% ( 0.52)3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 20.33% | 1-2 @ 4.69% ( 0.43) 0-1 @ 4.57% ( 0.59)0-2 @ 2.25% ( 0.33)2-3 @ 1.61% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.17)Other @ 2.29% Total : 16.94% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Ebbsfleet | 46 | 32 | 7 | 7 | 110 | 47 | 63 | 103 |
| 2 | DartfordDartford | 46 | 25 | 8 | 13 | 82 | 50 | 32 | 83 |
| 3 | Oxford CityOxford City | 46 | 21 | 15 | 10 | 83 | 56 | 27 | 78 |
| 4 | Worthing | 46 | 22 | 12 | 12 | 92 | 72 | 20 | 78 |
| 5 | Chelmsford CityChelmsford City | 46 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 67 | 49 | 18 | 78 |
| 6 | St Albans CitySt Albans City | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 72 | 51 | 21 | 75 |
| 7 | Braintree TownBraintree | 46 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 66 | 55 | 11 | 74 |
| 8 | Eastbourne BoroughEastbourne | 46 | 22 | 5 | 19 | 74 | 66 | 8 | 71 |
| 9 | Tonbridge AngelsTonbridge Angels | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 68 | 69 | -1 | 70 |
| 10 | Havant & WaterloovilleHavant & W'ville | 46 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 80 | 70 | 10 | 69 |
| 11 | Bath City | 46 | 19 | 10 | 17 | 64 | 57 | 7 | 67 |
| 12 | Farnborough Town | 46 | 19 | 9 | 18 | 59 | 52 | 7 | 66 |
| 13 | Chippenham TownChippenham | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 62 |
| 14 | Taunton TownTaunton Town | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 50 | 55 | -5 | 61 |
| 15 | Hemel Hempstead TownHemel Hempstead | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 60 |
| 16 | Welling UnitedWelling United | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 57 | 63 | -6 | 58 |
| 17 | Hampton & RichmondHampton | 46 | 15 | 9 | 22 | 59 | 71 | -12 | 54 |
| 18 | Slough TownSlough | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 58 | 78 | -20 | 51 |
| 19 | Weymouth | 46 | 14 | 6 | 26 | 59 | 78 | -19 | 48 |
| 20 | Dover AthleticDover Athletic | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 42 | 68 | -26 | 48 |
| R | Dulwich HamletDulwich Hamlet | 46 | 13 | 9 | 24 | 61 | 89 | -28 | 48 |
| R | Concord Rangers | 46 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 45 | 85 | -40 | 44 |
| R | Cheshunt | 46 | 11 | 10 | 25 | 48 | 74 | -26 | 43 |
| R | Hungerford TownHungerford | 46 | 10 | 10 | 26 | 48 | 72 | -24 | 40 |
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