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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 44.88%. A win for Atlanta United had a probability of 31.08% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.33%) and 2-0 (6.87%). The likeliest Atlanta United win was 1-2 (7.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Toronto | Draw | Atlanta United |
44.88% ( -0.02) | 24.04% ( -0) | 31.08% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 59.56% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.38% ( 0.01) | 42.62% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.97% ( 0.01) | 65.02% ( -0.01) |
| Toronto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.8% ( -0) | 19.19% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 49.12% ( -0.01) | 50.88% ( 0.01) |
| Atlanta United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.71% ( 0.02) | 26.28% ( -0.02) |
