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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | 46 | 63 |
| 2 | CF Montreal | 30 | 10 | 53 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | 8 | 50 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | New England Revolution | 30 | -1 | 38 |
| 6 | Chicago Fire | 30 | -8 | 35 |
| 7 | Toronto | 31 | -8 | 34 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 61.21%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 17.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.18%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.94%), while for a Chicago Fire win it was 0-1 (4.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that CF Montreal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| CF Montreal | Draw | Chicago Fire |
61.21% ( 0.27) | 21.07% ( -0.12) | 17.71% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 53.9% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.21% ( 0.26) | 42.79% ( -0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.8% ( 0.25) | 65.19% ( -0.26) |
| CF Montreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.51% ( 0.16) | 13.49% ( -0.17) |
