Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.59%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 34.74% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.02%) and 0-2 (6.86%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 1-0 (10.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
