SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 42.05%. A win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 32.25% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Fleetwood Town win was 0-1 (8.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Northampton Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Northampton Town | Draw | Fleetwood Town |
42.05% ( 0.24) | 25.7% ( -0.02) | 32.25% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 54.41% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.42% ( 0.01) | 49.58% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.39% ( 0.01) | 71.6% ( -0.01) |
| Northampton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.58% ( 0.12) | 23.41% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 42.59% ( 0.17) | 57.41% ( -0.17) |
| Fleetwood Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.04% ( -0.14) | 28.96% ( 0.14) |
