Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 41.4%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 34.05% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.4%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 2-1 (7.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.
