SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Algeria | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Senegal | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Kenya | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 4 | Tanzania | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kenya win with a probability of 46.68%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for South Sudan had a probability of 26.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kenya win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.06%) and 2-1 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.68%), while for a South Sudan win it was 0-1 (9.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Kenya | Draw | South Sudan |
46.68% ( 0.32) | 26.97% ( -0.06) | 26.35% ( -0.26) |
| Both teams to score 47.24% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.73% ( 0.05) | 57.27% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.89% ( 0.04) | 78.11% ( -0.04) |
| Kenya Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.47% ( 0.17) | 24.53% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.99% ( 0.24) | 59.01% ( -0.24) |
| South Sudan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.6% ( -0.19) | 37.4% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.82% ( -0.19) | 74.18% ( 0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| Kenya | Draw | South Sudan |
| 1-0 @ 12.89% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 9.06% ( 0.07)2-1 @ 8.91% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 4.24% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 4.17% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.05% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.49% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.47% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.4% Total : 46.68% | 1-1 @ 12.68% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 9.18% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.73% Total : 26.97% | 0-1 @ 9.02% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 6.24% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 4.44% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 2.04% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.72% Total : 26.35% |
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