Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jamaica win with a probability of 38.71%. A win for Guadeloupe had a probability of 35.62% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jamaica win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.49%) and 0-2 (6.39%). The likeliest Guadeloupe win was 1-0 (8.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jamaica would win this match.
