SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 54.36%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 23.54% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.42%) and 0-2 (8.13%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 2-1 (6.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Union Berlin | Draw | Ajax |
23.54% ( 0.06) | 22.1% ( -0.02) | 54.36% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 59.79% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.58% ( 0.17) | 39.42% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.24% ( 0.18) | 61.76% ( -0.18) |
| Union Berlin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.93% ( 0.15) | 30.07% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.8% ( 0.17) | 66.2% ( -0.17) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.5% ( 0.05) | 14.5% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.49% ( 0.09) | 42.51% ( -0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Union Berlin | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 6.08% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 5.24% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 3.15% 3-1 @ 2.44% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.35% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 1.26% ( 0)Other @ 3.02% Total : 23.54% | 1-1 @ 10.11% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.87% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 4.36% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.51% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.24% Total : 22.09% | 1-2 @ 9.77% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.42% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 8.13% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 6.29% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 5.23% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.78% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 3.04% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 2.53% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.82% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 1.17% ( 0)0-5 @ 0.98% Other @ 3.22% Total : 54.36% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Manchester CityMan City | 35 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 92 | 31 | 61 | 85 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 36 | 25 | 6 | 5 | 83 | 42 | 41 | 81 |
| 3 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 36 | 19 | 12 | 5 | 67 | 32 | 35 | 69 |
| 4 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 35 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 51 | 41 | 10 | 66 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 36 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 70 | 42 | 28 | 65 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 35 | 17 | 7 | 11 | 67 | 49 | 18 | 58 |
| 7 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 36 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 65 | 59 | 6 | 57 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 36 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 57 |
| 9 | Brentford | 36 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 54 | 45 | 9 | 53 |
| 10 | Fulham | 36 | 15 | 6 | 15 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 51 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 35 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 43 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 36 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 37 | 46 | -9 | 43 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 36 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 52 | -22 | 40 |
| 14 | Bournemouth | 36 | 11 | 6 | 19 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 39 |
| 15 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 36 | 10 | 7 | 19 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 37 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 67 | -31 | 34 |
| 17 | Everton | 36 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 32 | 56 | -24 | 32 |
| 18 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 36 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 71 | -25 | 31 |
| 19 | Leicester CityLeicester | 36 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 49 | 67 | -18 | 30 |
| R | Southampton | 36 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 66 | -35 | 24 |
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