Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lech Poznan win with a probability of 50.8%. A win for Spartak Trnava had a probability of 24.77% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lech Poznan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (8.9%). The likeliest Spartak Trnava win was 0-1 (7.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lech Poznan would win this match.
