SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 66.84%. A draw had a probability of 17.8% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 15.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.79%) and 1-3 (7.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.87%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 2-1 (4.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | Feyenoord |
15.32% ( 0.38) | 17.83% ( 0.33) | 66.84% ( -0.71) |
| Both teams to score 60.35% ( -0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.07% ( -0.83) | 31.92% ( 0.82) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.52% ( -0.97) | 53.47% ( 0.97) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.22% ( -0.08) | 33.78% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.56% ( -0.08) | 70.44% ( 0.08) |
| Feyenoord Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.13% ( -0.38) | 8.86% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 69.66% ( -0.92) | 30.34% ( 0.91) |
| Score Analysis |
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | Feyenoord |
| 2-1 @ 4.27% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 3.25% ( 0.14)3-2 @ 1.87% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 1.76% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 1.55% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.62% Total : 15.32% | 1-1 @ 7.87% ( 0.2) 2-2 @ 5.18% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 2.99% ( 0.13)3-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.28% Total : 17.83% | 1-2 @ 9.54% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 8.79% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 7.71% ( -0.07)0-1 @ 7.25% ( 0.2)0-3 @ 7.1% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 4.67% ( -0.13)0-4 @ 4.3% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 4.18% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 2.53% ( -0.08)1-5 @ 2.26% ( -0.1)0-5 @ 2.09% ( -0.09)2-5 @ 1.23% ( -0.06)3-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.03)1-6 @ 0.91% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.36% Total : 66.84% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Feyenoord | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 81 | 30 | 51 | 82 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 89 | 40 | 49 | 75 |
| 3 | Ajax | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 86 | 38 | 48 | 69 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 35 | 33 | 67 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 66 | 27 | 39 | 64 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 59 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 54 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 46 |
| 9 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 50 | 64 | -14 | 41 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 40 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 56 | -10 | 40 |
| 12 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 39 |
| 13 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 36 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 42 | 71 | -29 | 36 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 32 | 71 | -39 | 32 |
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 28 |
| R | Cambuur | 34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 26 | 69 | -43 | 19 |
| R | Groningen | 34 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 75 | -44 | 18 |
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