Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ win with a probability of 48.34%. A win for FC Twente had a probability of 27.88% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.89%) and 0-2 (7.61%). The likeliest FC Twente win was 2-1 (6.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ would win this match.
