Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 58.1%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Southampton had a probability of 19.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.23%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.69%), while for a Southampton win it was 0-1 (5.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
Result | ||
Newcastle United | Draw | Southampton |
58.1% ( -0.01) | 22.52% ( 0) | 19.38% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 52.2% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.43% ( -0.01) | 46.57% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.16% ( -0.01) | 68.84% ( 0.01) |
Newcastle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.27% ( -0.01) | 15.73% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
55.17% ( -0.02) | 44.82% ( 0.01) |
Southampton Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.95% ( -0) | 38.05% ( 0) |