Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Audax Italiano win with a probability of 37.33%. A win for Santos had a probability of 34.24% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Audax Italiano win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.8%) and 2-0 (7.01%). The likeliest Santos win was 0-1 (11.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Audax Italiano would win this match.
-0.14) 
0.04) 
