SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 50.42%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Paraguay had a probability of 21.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.7%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.5%), while for a Paraguay win it was 0-1 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Colombia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Colombia | Draw | Paraguay |
50.42% ( -0.02) | 27.69% ( 0.05) | 21.89% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 41.35% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.28% ( -0.19) | 62.72% ( 0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.73% ( -0.14) | 82.26% ( 0.14) |
| Colombia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.8% ( -0.1) | 25.2% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.07% ( -0.13) | 59.93% ( 0.13) |
| Paraguay Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.28% ( -0.15) | 44.72% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.29% ( -0.12) | 80.71% ( 0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Colombia | Draw | Paraguay |
| 1-0 @ 15.53% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 10.7% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 8.62% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 4.92% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.96% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.7% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.59% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.36% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.03% Total : 50.41% | 1-1 @ 12.5% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 11.26% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 3.47% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.46% Total : 27.69% | 0-1 @ 9.07% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.03% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.65% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.89% Total : 21.89% |
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