SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 60.4%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Coritiba had a probability of 17.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.33%), while for a Coritiba win it was 0-1 (5.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fortaleza | Draw | Coritiba |
60.4% ( 0.26) | 21.77% ( -0.01) | 17.82% ( -0.25) |
| Both teams to score 51.82% ( -0.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.33% ( -0.36) | 45.67% ( 0.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32% ( -0.34) | 67.99% ( 0.34) |
| Fortaleza Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.32% ( -0.04) | 14.67% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 57.16% ( -0.07) | 42.84% ( 0.06) |
| Coritiba Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.73% ( -0.51) | 39.26% ( 0.5) |
