SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 45.38%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 27.95% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (8.51%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (8.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cruzeiro | Draw | Fortaleza |
45.38% ( -11.43) | 26.67% ( 2.14) | 27.95% ( 9.28) |
| Both teams to score 49.21% ( 4.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.72% ( 0.08) | 55.28% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.5% ( 0.06) | 76.5% ( -0.07) |
| Cruzeiro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.71% ( -4.89) | 24.28% ( 4.89) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 41.34% ( -7.45) | 58.65% ( 7.45) |
| Fortaleza Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65% ( 8.96) | 35% ( -8.97) |
