Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 45.86%. A win for Coritiba had a probability of 27.21% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.89%) and 0-2 (8.78%). The likeliest Coritiba win was 1-0 (9.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
0.38) 
-0.6) 
