SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 36.91%. A win for Flamengo had a probability of 36.75% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.18%) and 2-0 (6.28%). The likeliest Flamengo win was 0-1 (9.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Athletico Paranaense | Draw | Flamengo |
36.91% ( 0.43) | 26.34% ( -0.11) | 36.75% ( -0.32) |
| Both teams to score 53.1% ( 0.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.38% ( 0.45) | 51.61% ( -0.45) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.6% ( 0.39) | 73.4% ( -0.39) |
| Athletico Paranaense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.91% ( 0.47) | 27.08% ( -0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 37.54% ( 0.61) | 62.46% ( -0.6) |
| Flamengo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.82% ( 0.03) | 27.17% ( -0.02) |
