SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Santos | 21 | 7 | 30 |
| 10 | America Mineiro | 21 | -6 | 27 |
| 11 | Sao Paulo | 21 | 1 | 26 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Bragantino | 21 | 7 | 30 |
| 9 | Santos | 21 | 7 | 30 |
| 10 | America Mineiro | 21 | -6 | 27 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 43.54%. A draw had a probability of 28.5% and a win for Santos had a probability of 27.93%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.71%) and 2-1 (8.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.12%), while for a Santos win it was 0-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for America Mineiro in this match.
| Result | ||
| America Mineiro | Draw | Santos |
43.54% ( -1.92) | 28.54% ( 0.05) | 27.93% ( 1.88) |
| Both teams to score 44.06% ( 1.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.17% ( 0.73) | 61.83% ( -0.73) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.39% ( 0.54) | 81.61% ( -0.53) |
| America Mineiro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.76% ( -0.67) | 28.24% ( 0.67) |
