Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 39.18%. A win for America Mineiro had a probability of 31.4% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.73%) and 1-2 (7.71%). The likeliest America Mineiro win was 1-0 (11.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.
