Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea win with a probability of 61.76%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 14.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.7%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 0-1 (6.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Guinea would win this match.
1.3) 
-0.42) 
