Even overlooking their home advantage, Egypt head into the weekend on a fine run of form, giving them an extra edge. Malawi must pull one out of the hat if they hope to cause an upset, but we see the hosts prevailing in what should be a thrilling affair.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Egypt win with a probability of 67.71%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Malawi had a probability of 10.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Egypt win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.45%) and 3-0 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.56%), while for a Malawi win it was 0-1 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 15.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Egypt in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Egypt.
-0.56) 
0.33) 
