SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Nassr win with a probability of 50.8%. A win for Istiqlol Dushanbe had a probability of 26.43% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Nassr win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.16%) and 0-2 (7.52%). The likeliest Istiqlol Dushanbe win was 2-1 (6.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Istiqlol Dushanbe | Draw | Al-Nassr |
26.43% ( -0.49) | 22.77% ( -0.03) | 50.8% ( 0.52) |
| Both teams to score 60.64% ( -0.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.29% ( -0.28) | 39.71% ( 0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.94% ( -0.29) | 62.06% ( 0.29) |
| Istiqlol Dushanbe Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.03% ( -0.5) | 27.97% ( 0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.39% ( -0.64) | 63.61% ( 0.64) |
| Al-Nassr Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.2% ( 0.08) | 15.8% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.04% ( 0.14) | 44.96% ( -0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Istiqlol Dushanbe | Draw | Al-Nassr |
| 2-1 @ 6.62% ( -0.08) 1-0 @ 5.63% ( -0)2-0 @ 3.59% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 2.81% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 2.59% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 1.52% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.66% Total : 26.43% | 1-1 @ 10.38% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.11% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 4.42% ( 0.06)3-3 @ 1.6% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.26% Total : 22.76% | 1-2 @ 9.58% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 8.16% ( 0.13)0-2 @ 7.52% ( 0.14)1-3 @ 5.9% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 4.63% ( 0.1)2-3 @ 3.76% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 2.72% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 2.13% ( 0.05)2-4 @ 1.73% ( -0.01)1-5 @ 1% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.68% Total : 50.81% |
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