Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 40.82%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 36.38% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.06%) and 2-0 (5.24%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 1-2 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hamburger SV would win this match.
0.29) 
-0.52) 
