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Preview: Miami Open: Karolina Muchova vs. Victoria Azarenka - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

:Headline: Preview: Miami Open: Karolina Muchova vs. Victoria Azarenka - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far:
Sports Mole previews Friday's Miami Open second-round match between Karolina Muchova and Victoria Azarenka, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Sports Mole

Karolina Muchova's Miami Open campaign begins against three-time champion Victoria Azarenka in Friday's second round.

The Czech player returns to competitive action for the first time since a humbling loss at Indian Wells against eventual semi-finalist Iga Swiatek, as she aims to secure consecutive tour-level victories over Azarenka in their upcoming encounter.


Match preview

Muchova, one of only four women to take Swiatek to three sets at Roland Garros, entered her fifth match-up with the Polish superstar in Indian Wells, knowing that three of their previous four meetings had gone the distance.

However, the 28-year-old managed just two games in her 6-1, 6-1 defeat to the world No. 2 in 57 minutes, exiting in the fourth round at the BNP Paribas Open.

Having advanced to the semi-finals in Linz and Dubai before the third WTA 1000 tournament of 2025, the manner of her defeat against Swiatek was a slight setback for the Czech player, who is keen to respond to that meek surrender by avoiding early elimination in Miami.

Muchova begins the second leg of the Sunshine Double with an 11-6 record this season, seeking a 12th victory at Azarenka's expense to achieve a sixth career win at the Florida-based event, where she has never progressed beyond the third round (2022, 2023).

Defeating Azarenka will pose a challenge despite the Belarusian's advancing years.

While Azarenka, 35, may be past her prime, the two-time Grand Slam winner and 10-time 1000-level champion has recorded three victories in Miami, the most among the 1000 tournaments.

Though her last success here came in 2016 — when she completed the Sunshine Double by triumphing in both Indian Wells and Miami — she has reached two semi-finals in six recent main-draw appearances, including one year ago.

A 34-year-old Azarenka pushed Elena Rybakina to three sets in the semi-final before succumbing in two hours and 33 minutes against the eight-time WTA champion.

Last year's run followed four appearances without going beyond the fourth round (2021), with the Belarusian exiting in the second (2019) and third (2022, 2023) rounds, highlighting the veteran player's broader struggles before 2024's performance.

Wednesday's 6-3, 6-1 victory over Anhelina Kalinina extended the 21-time titlist's streak of never exiting in the first round of the 1000-level event, and she aims to clinch a record-extending 45th win in Miami, where she has the most victories in WTA 1000 tournaments, by overcoming her Czech opponent.


Tournament so far

Karolina Muchiva:

First round: Bye

Victoria Azarenka:

First round: Anhelina Kalinina 6-3 6-1


Head To Head

Indian Wells (2023) - Second round: Muchova 7-6(1) 6-3

US Open (2020) - Fourth round: Azarenka 5-7 6-1 6-4

Azarenka and Muchova each have one victory as they head into their third meeting on the women's tour, although the Czech player emerged successful in their 2023 contest.

That second-round win avenged Azarenka's fourth-round elimination of Muchova at the 2020 US Open, and the 15th seed is looking for consecutive wins against the 10-time WTA 1000 champion.

With the veteran failing to win back-to-back matches in 2025, the 35-year-old enters Friday's match aiming to change her fortunes.

However, Muchova's impressive 27-5 record against players ranked outside the top 20 in the past year underscores the former world No. 8's status as the favourite against the No. 32.


We say: Muchova to win in two sets

All five of Azarenka's defeats in 2025 have come in straight sets, and another two-set loss is expected for the three-time Miami Open champion.

With the Belarusian not having progressed to the third round of any WTA 1000 tournament this year, exiting in the first round in Qatar and falling in the second round in Dubai and Indian Wells — Muchova is anticipated to hand the experienced player another round-two loss by winning Friday's match.

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