First-time Miami Open quarter-finalist Qinwen Zheng has another chance to end her losing streak against world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka in Tuesday's contest.
Although the Belarusian has never advanced past the last eight at the Florida-based event, her one-sided rivalry with the Chinese star makes her the favourite to reach the last four at the fourth WTA 1000 event in 2025.
Match preview
Sabalenka is back to form after an underwhelming Middle East swing by her standards, marked by exits in Qatar in the second round and Dubai in round three against Ekaterina Alexandrova and Clara Tauson, respectively.
The world No. 1 has since rediscovered some of her finest tennis at the Sunshine Double, reaching the title match in California and advancing to the last eight in Florida without dropping a set.
Fresh off eliminating defending champion Danielle Collins in Monday's last 16, Sabalenka improved to 20-4 for the season and aims for a 21st victory at Zheng's expense.
The 26-year-old's sixth meeting with the Chinese player presents another opportunity to overcome a quarter-final hoodoo in Miami, where she has never competed in a semi-final.
After being defeated by Ashleigh Barty (2021) and Sorana Cirstea (2023) in previous runs to the last eight, the 18-time WTA champion now hopes to be third-time lucky for a first appearance at the event's penultimate stage.
Striving to thwart the top seed's aspirations is Zheng, who not only seeks to reach the semi-final but also to snap a five-match losing streak against the world No. 1.
All but one of those losses have come in straight sets, highlighting the ninth seed's struggles in their encounters, which the five-time titlist is eager to end in Florida.
Given her apparent resurgence during the Sunshine Double after a grim start that saw the Olympic champion and 2024's WTA Finals finalist win just one of her opening four matches to begin 2025, Zheng has reason to feel optimistic.
Losses to Ons Jabeur and Peyton Stearns in the Middle East followed a second-round exit at the hands of Laura Siegemund in Australia; however, the only defeat suffered in the United States was to Iga Swiatek at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells.
With Pere Riba back in Zheng's corner, the 22-year-old enters her sixth meeting against Sabalenka with a 6-1 record, with those victories over Victoria Azarenka, Lulu Sun, Marta Kostyuk, Lauren Davis, Taylor Townsend and Ashlyn Krueger coming in straight sets.
Tournament so far
Aryna Sabalenka:
First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Viktoriya Tomova 6-3 6-0
Third round: vs. Elena-Gabriela Ruse 6-1 0-0 ret
Round of 16: vs. Danielle Collins 6-4 6-4
Qinwen Zheng:
First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Lauren Davis 6-1 7-5
Third round: vs. Taylor Townsend 6-1 7-6[3]
Round of 16: vs. Ashlyn Krueger 6-2 7-6[3]
Head To Head
WTA Finals (2024) - Round Robin: Sabalenka 6-3 6-4
Wuhan Open (2024) - Final: Sabalenka 6-3 5-7 6-3
US Open (2024) - Quarter-final: Sabalenka 6-1 6-2
Australian Open (2024) - Final: Sabalenka 6-3 6-2
US Open (2023) - Quarter-final: Sabalenka 6-1 6-4
Except for the Wuhan final, played in Zheng's home country, the Chinese star has not managed to win a set in eight attempts, trailing Sabalenka 10-1.
Previous match-ups have taken place on hard courts, and Tuesday's meeting will be their sixth on this surface, although they have not played since the 2024 WTA Finals in Riyadh.
Neither player has had significant match experience against top 10 players this season, with Sabalenka defeating Madison Keys (the American was not in that elite group in the Aussie Open final), while Zheng lost her only match against Swiatek in Indian Wells.
We say: Sabalenka to win in two sets
Despite Zheng's improvement during the Sunshine Double, history suggests that the Chinese player will come up short against the top seed.
While Sabalenka may face some pressure to reach her first semi-final in Miami, we expect the world No. 1 to secure a sixth straight victory over the Olympic champion and claim a last-four spot against Magda Linette or Jasmine Paolini.
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