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Preview: Australian Open: Emma Navarro vs. Iga Swiatek - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

:Headline: Preview: Australian Open: Emma Navarro vs. Iga Swiatek - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far:
Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Australian Open quarter-final match between Emma Navarro and Iga Swiatek, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Sports Mole

Battle-hardened Emma Navarro takes on five-time Grand Slam champion Iga Swiatek in Wednesday's quarter-final battle between two top-10 opponents.

The 23-year-old, one of three American women in the last eight, along with Coco Gauff and Madison Keys, seeks to stun the in-form Polish superstar, who has blown opponents to smithereens in typical fashion en route to a second last-eight appearance in Melbourne.


Match preview

It was business as usual for Navarro in Monday's fourth-round match at the Australian Open, as the eighth seed notched her tenth three-set victory at a Grand Slam to defeat ninth seed Daria Kasatkina 6-4, 5-7, 7-5.

That success means the 23-year-old has advanced to her first last-eight match in Australia and third overall in consecutive Slams – she reached the quarters at Wimbledon and the US Open semis last year – and aims to stun the second seed.

Now 10-2 in matches going to a decider at Majors, all four of Navarro's matches at the opening Slam of 2025 have gone to deciders, highlighting her battling qualities and staying power.

The last defeat suffered by the United States player in three sets came against Ukrainian qualifier Dayana Yastremska in 2024's Aussie Open third round, and she enters Wednesday's match with the Polish star on a seven-match winning streak in such encounters.

This year's run Down Under sees Navarro become the first woman to claim four straight three-set victories at the opening Grand Slam of the year since Jelena Dokic in 2009; it will be fascinating to see if she forces a decider against the second seed.

While the American star has had to play deciding sets in every round, Swiatek has barely broken a sweat en route to a second quarter-final run in Australia, dropping zero sets and losing 11 games across four match-ups.

Dropping one game each in rounds three and four to dispatch Emma Raducanu and Romanian qualifier Eva Lys has sent ominous warnings to opponents left in the draw, though Navarro's on-court variety and penchant for extended matches will test the five-time Grand Slam champion.

After failing to build on her semi-final run in 2022, the second seed is enjoying her deepest run Down Under in three years, surpassing 2023's fourth-round exit and last year's round-three elimination.

Keen to record success in Australia for the first time, the 22-time tour champion aims for a 23rd crown to continue an outstanding start to 2025.

The youngest player since Svetlana Kuznetsova to reach a tenth women's quarter-final at the majors in Australia is 8-1 this season heading into Wednesday, and she aims for a ninth victory at Navarro's expense for a second last-four appearance at Melbourne Park.


Tournament so far

Emma Navarro:

First round: vs. Peyton Stearns 6-7[5] 7-6[5] 7-5
Second round: vs. Wang Xiyu 6-3 3-6 6-4
Third round: vs. Ons Jabeur 6-4 3-6 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Daria Kasatkina 6-4 5-7 7-5

Iga Swiatek:

First round: Katerina Siniakova 6-3 6-4
Second round: vs. Rebecca Sramkova 6-0 6-2
Third round: vs. Emma Raducanu 6-1 6-0
Round of 16: vs. Eva Lys 6-0 6-1


Head To Head

Charlston (2018) - Round of 32: Swiatek 6-0 6-2

Both women have faced off once on the women's tour, with Swiatek dropping two games en route to a characteristic 6-0, 6-2 victory.

Seven years since that 2018 match-up in Charleston, Navarro is anticipated to offer more resistance against the Polish star.

Despite her undoubted quality and dominance, Swiatek is 3-5 against top-10 opponents entering Wednesday's quarter-final, having previously triumphed in six consecutive match-ups against the elite during a run that witnessed 16 wins in 17 against the highest-ranked players.

Navarro is 5-9 against the very best players on tour, though she has recorded wins in two of her recent three top-10 opponents – beating Gauff in three sets at the US Open and defeating Kasatkina in Melbourne, either side of losing to Aryna Sabalenka at Flushing Meadows last year.


We say: Swiatek to win in two sets

Swiatek will face her sternest test against her first seeded opponent in Navarro, and she will be keen to avoid a three-setter against a player well-versed in deciding sets.

The Polish star, 2-4 in recent three-setters before facing her American opponent, should get the job done in two tight ones against the eighth seed.

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Read more about Emma Navarro Iga Swiatek Wang Xiyu Peyton Stearns Ons Jabeur Daria Kasatkina Rebecca Sramkova Emma Raducanu Eva Lys Katerina Siniakova Dayana Yastremska Aryna Sabalenka Madison Keys Coco Gauff Svetlana Kuznetsova Jelena Dokic Tennis
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