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Preview: Miami Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

:Headline: Preview: Miami Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far:
Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Miami Open fourth-round match between Lorenzo Musetti and Novak Djokovic, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Sports Mole

Fresh off surpassing Rafael Nadal's 410 wins at ATP Masters 1000 events, Novak Djokovic bids for a 412th as the six-time Miami Open champion faces Lorenzo Musetti in Tuesday's fourth round.

The Italian has come through consecutive three-setters to set up a ninth meeting with Djokovic, who has won the last four encounters between the players.


Match preview

Marathon man Musetti has required three sets in rounds two and three against Quentin Halys and Felix Auger-Aliassime to secure another encounter with the sport's greatest player.

Having fallen to Arthur Fils in three sets in Indian Wells a fortnight ago, following a three-set triumph over Roman Safiullin, the world No. 16's last four matches on the ATP Tour have gone to deciders.

Although he has secured wins in three of those contests, including back-to-back victories in Miami, the 23-year-old will aim for easier days on the court.

That is not expected to happen against Djokovic, whose pursuit of a sixth crown in Miami and 100th title overall is gaining momentum.

Musetti's performance this year has matched his 2024 run to the last 16, although the Italian player was beaten in two sets by former champion Carlos Alcaraz and now faces a six-time titleholder seeking a maiden quarter-final berth in Florida.

However, a four-match losing streak against the 99-time ATP champion does not bode well for the 15th seed's prospects against the Serbian star.

With Alcaraz having suffered a shock exit in the second round to David Goffin, Djokovic's path to a potential sixth title at the Miami Masters appears even more promising.

The 37-year-old has secured similar wins in the tournament's opening rounds, easing through first sets against Rinky Hijikata and Camilo Ugo Carabelli before requiring second-set tiebreaks to avoid being taken to deciders in both victories.

Having returned to Miami for the first time since 2019 on a three-match losing streak — falling to Alexander Zverev in Australia, Matteo Berrettini in Doha, and Botic van de Zandschlup in Indian Wells— back-to-back victories for the first time since his run to the Aussie Open semis provide the world No. 5 with much-needed momentum heading into the second week at the second Masters tournament of 2025.

Djokovic, aiming to improve his 9-4 record this season, could notch a 47th victory at the ATP 1000 event, where he holds a 46-7 record entering Tuesday's last-16 contest.


Tournament so far

Lorenzo Musetti:

First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Quentin Halys 3-6 7-6[4] 7-5
Third round: vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime 4-6 6-2 6-3

Novak Djokovic:

First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Rinky Hijikata 6-0 7-6[1]
Third round: vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli 6-1 7-6[1]


Head To Head

Paris Olympics (2024) - Semi-final: Djokovic 6-4 6-2

Wimbledon (2024) - Semi-final: Djokovic 6-4 7-6(2) 6-4

Roland Garros (2024) - Third round: Djokovic 7-5 6-7(6) 2-6 6-3 6-0

Monte-Carlo Masters (2024) - Round of 16: Djokovic 7-5 6-3

Monte-Carlo Masters (2023) - Round of 16: Musetti 4-6 7-5 6-4

Paris Masters (2022) - Quarter-final: Djokovic 6-0 6-3

Dubai (2022) - Round of 32: Djokovic 6-3 6-3

Roland Garros (2021) - Round of 16: Djokovic 6-7(7) 6-7(2) 6-1 6-0 4-0 ret

Although Djokovic and Musetti have engaged in epic battles on the ATP Tour, including a third-round duel at last year's Roland Garros that concluded at 3:07 AM local time, the sport's finest player has dominated their encounters.

The Serbian, seeking an eighth victory in their head-to-head, holds a 7-1 lead entering Tuesday's encounter while aiming to improve his 9-4 record in 2025.

Musetti's only triumph over the 99-time titlist came at a Masters event last year, albeit on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo.

However, the 23-year-old has lost the last eight sets against the Serbian since claiming the first two in their thrilling five-setter at the 2024 French Open.


We say: Djokovic to win in three sets

Musetti's on-court variety and rally tolerance could pose questions for Djokovic for the first time in Miami, but the six-time champion should clinch a fifth consecutive victory over the Italian, setting up a quarter-final clash with Sebastian Korda.

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Read more about Lorenzo Musetti Novak Djokovic Sebastian Korda Felix Auger-Aliassime Gael Monfils Quentin Halys Rinky Hijikata Camilo Ugo Carabelli Roman Safiullin Arthur Fils David Goffin Alexander Zverev Matteo Berrettini Carlos Alcaraz Botic van de Zandschulp Tennis
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