We said: Peru 1-1 Ecuador
Victory for Peru would certainly throw the cat amongst the pigeons with regards to the battle for third spot, but Ecuador cannot be caught no matter what transpires this week and will simply want to avoid another defeat away from home.
Such circumstances may lead to a move conservative approach from the visitors - especially in the absence of talisman Valencia - so we can envisage both sides cancelling each other out in this top-four battle.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peru win with a probability of 44.58%. A win for Ecuador had a probability of 27.95% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Peru win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (8.63%). The likeliest Ecuador win was 0-1 (9.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
