SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 15 | Sampdoria | 38 | -17 | 36 |
| 16 | Spezia | 38 | -30 | 36 |
| 17 | Salernitana | 38 | -45 | 31 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Fiorentina | 38 | 8 | 62 |
| 8 | Atalanta BC | 38 | 17 | 59 |
| 9 | Hellas Verona | 38 | 6 | 53 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 73.18%. A draw had a probability of 16.2% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 10.58%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.36%) and 0-3 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.63%), while for a Spezia win it was 2-1 (3.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Spezia | Draw | Atalanta BC |
10.58% ( 0.12) | 16.24% ( 0.05) | 73.18% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 51.22% ( 0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.52% ( 0.09) | 36.48% ( -0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.37% ( 0.1) | 58.63% ( -0.1) |
| Spezia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.05% ( 0.27) | 43.95% ( -0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19.91% ( 0.23) | 80.08% ( -0.22) |
| Atalanta BC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.38% ( -0.01) | 8.62% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 70.26% ( -0.04) | 29.74% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Spezia | Draw | Atalanta BC |
| 2-1 @ 3.14% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 3.11% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 1.28% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.02)Other @ 2% Total : 10.58% | 1-1 @ 7.63% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 3.85% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 3.79% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.98% Total : 16.24% | 0-2 @ 11.38% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 9.36% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 9.3% ( -0.06)0-1 @ 9.29% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 7.65% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 5.7% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 4.69% ( 0)2-3 @ 3.14% ( 0.03)0-5 @ 2.8% ( -0.02)1-5 @ 2.3% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.93% ( 0.02)0-6 @ 1.14% ( -0.01)2-5 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)1-6 @ 0.94% ( -0)Other @ 2.62% Total : 73.17% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Napoli | 32 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 68 | 22 | 46 | 79 |
| 2 | Juventus | 33 | 19 | 6 | 8 | 50 | 28 | 22 | 63 |
| 3 | Lazio | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 50 | 24 | 26 | 61 |
| 4 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 33 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 56 | 39 | 17 | 58 |
| 5 | Inter Milan | 32 | 18 | 3 | 11 | 54 | 35 | 19 | 57 |
| 6 | AC Milan | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 57 |
| 7 | Roma | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 44 | 30 | 14 | 57 |
| 8 | Fiorentina | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 39 | 6 | 46 |
| 9 | Bologna | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 41 | 40 | 1 | 45 |
| 10 | Torino | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 45 |
| 11 | Monza | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 40 | 43 | -3 | 44 |
| 12 | SassuoloSassuolo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 43 |
| 13 | Udinese | 32 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 42 |
| 14 | Salernitana | 33 | 7 | 14 | 12 | 41 | 54 | -13 | 35 |
| 15 | Empoli | 32 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 26 | 42 | -16 | 32 |
| 16 | Lecce | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 31 |
| 17 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 32 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 27 | 45 | -18 | 27 |
| 18 | SpeziaSpezia | 33 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 28 | 54 | -26 | 27 |
| 19 | Cremonese | 32 | 3 | 11 | 18 | 28 | 58 | -30 | 20 |
| 20 | Sampdoria | 33 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 20 | 59 | -39 | 17 |
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