Napoli and Roma have both won two of their last six Serie A clashes in Naples, suggesting there has been little to separate them in recent times.
Those games featured an average of over three goals per game, and as these teams have scored the most times from set pieces this season - the Giallorossi have most from corners (11); the Azzurri are top in terms of free kicks (seven) - it could be such a situation that decides the destiny of this latest meeting.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 43.09%. A win for Roma had a probability of 32.6% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.3%) and 2-0 (6.63%). The likeliest Roma win was 1-2 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
