In this meeting between the two teams with the highest average possession of the Serie A season - Napoli with 59% and Fiorentina on 57% - the fight for midfield supremacy could be integral to either side's success.
If they can win that tussle, the hosts are best placed to claim all three points from a close-fought affair, as their greater individual ability in attack can make the difference once again.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 58.89%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Fiorentina had a probability of 19.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.14%) and 1-0 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.84%), while for a Fiorentina win it was 1-2 (5.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
