Like the first leg, we expect Friday's contest to be a closely-fought encounter, but with an impressive home record on their side, we think that Arbroath may just edge out Inverness to reach the playoff final.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arbroath win with a probability of 44.49%. A win for Inverness Caledonian Thistle had a probability of 28.48% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arbroath win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (8.41%). The likeliest Inverness Caledonian Thistle win was 0-1 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.
