SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Sochi | 29 | 20 | 53 |
| 3 | Dynamo Moscow | 29 | 16 | 53 |
| 4 | FC Krasnodar | 29 | 12 | 49 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Zenit St Petersburg | 29 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sochi | 29 | 20 | 53 |
| 3 | Dynamo Moscow | 29 | 16 | 53 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dynamo Moscow win with a probability of 43.89%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 28.18% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dynamo Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.6%) and 2-1 (8.51%). The likeliest Sochi win was 0-1 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Dynamo Moscow | Draw | Sochi |
43.89% ( -0.01) | 27.92% ( -0) | 28.18% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 45.85% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.35% ( 0.02) | 59.64% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.03% ( 0.01) | 79.96% ( -0.02) |
| Dynamo Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.99% ( 0) | 27.01% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 37.63% ( 0.01) | 62.36% ( -0.01) |
| Sochi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.82% ( 0.02) | 37.17% ( -0.02) |
