SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Portimonense | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Porto | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Rio Ave | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Maritimo | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Pacos de Ferreira | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 79.56%. A draw had a probability of 13.5% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 6.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.28%) and 1-0 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.4%), while for a Maritimo win it was 0-1 (2.42%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Maritimo |
79.56% ( 0.07) | 13.47% ( -0.03) | 6.96% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 45.04% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.29% ( -0) | 35.71% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.22% ( 0) | 57.77% ( -0.01) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.92% ( 0.01) | 7.07% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 74.19% ( 0.04) | 25.81% ( -0.04) |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.47% ( -0.11) | 51.52% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 14.3% ( -0.07) | 85.69% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Maritimo |
| 2-0 @ 12.78% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 11.28% ( 0.02)1-0 @ 9.65% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 8.48% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 7.49% ( -0)4-0 @ 7.48% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 4.96% 5-0 @ 3.96% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 2.63% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.48% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 1.75% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.64% ( -0)6-1 @ 1.16% ( 0)Other @ 3.82% Total : 79.55% | 1-1 @ 6.4% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.65% 2-2 @ 2.81% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.61% Total : 13.47% | 0-1 @ 2.42% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 2.12% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.42% Total : 6.96% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 19 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 48 | 12 | 36 | 50 |
| 2 | Porto | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 43 | 11 | 32 | 42 |
| 3 | Braga | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 40 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 38 | 19 | 19 | 35 |
| 5 | Casa Pia | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 30 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 27 |
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 26 |
| 8 | Vizela | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 24 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 27 | -7 | 24 |
| 10 | ChavesChaves | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 22 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 21 |
| 12 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 21 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 20 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 19 |
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 18 |
| 16 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 14 |
| 17 | Maritimo | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 33 | -22 | 13 |
| 18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 19 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 35 | -23 | 9 |
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