Losing Palhinha and Coates is a big blow for Sporting considering their importance, but the Green and Whites will still fancy their chances of picking up a positive result. It would not be a surprise to see a home win or an away win here, but we have ultimately settled on a low-scoring draw in Lisbon.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 47.06%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 29.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.53%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.
