SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Aston Villa | 38 | -2 | 45 |
| 15 | Southampton | 38 | -24 | 40 |
| 16 | Everton | 38 | -23 | 39 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Manchester City | 38 | 73 | 93 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 38 | 68 | 92 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 38 | 43 | 74 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 70.36%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Southampton had a probability of 11.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.1%) and 1-2 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.37%), while for a Southampton win it was 1-0 (3.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Southampton | Draw | Liverpool |
11.94% ( 0.1) | 17.7% ( 0.18) | 70.36% ( -0.28) |
| Both teams to score 50.65% ( -0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.38% ( -0.56) | 39.62% ( 0.56) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.03% ( -0.58) | 61.97% ( 0.58) |
| Southampton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.33% ( -0.2) | 43.67% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 20.15% ( -0.16) | 79.85% ( 0.16) |
| Liverpool Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.92% ( -0.21) | 10.08% ( 0.22) |
